|itive balance. To the league’s credit, D
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|Autore:||lw789 [ gio set 20, 2018 8:24 am ]|
|Oggetto del messaggio:||itive balance. To the league’s credit, D|
In the end, it all came down to a draw to the button. In front of a sold out crowd at The Fenlands Banff Recreation Centre in Banff, Alta, Jeff Stoughton and his All-Star team emerged victorious at Sundays Travelers All-Star Curling Skins Game Presented by Pintys final. Team Stoughton defeated five-time TSN skins champion Kevin Martin and his All-Star teammates earlier Sunday afternoon following their semifinal win on Saturday over Team Brad Gushue. In total, Stoughton takes away $70,500 in prize winnings at TSNs two-day All-Star event that featured the Top 16 Canadian mens curlers – as voted by fans. Playing with an All-Star team featuring Dave Nedohin (Third), Brent Laing (Second), and Ryan Harnden (Lead), this victory marks the first TSN skins title for the two-time World Champion Stoughton. Stoughtons prize money from this weekend totals $70,500, which includes $38,000 won in Sundays final, plus $17,500 won in Saturdays semifinal, and a $15,000 winners bonus. After this weekend, Stoughtons career TSN skins game winnings now total $108,500. Martin began the final with an early lead by winning the second end, taking $4,000 following a first end carry-over. Stoughton won the third end and $3,000 to bring the game closer. He then pulled ahead following carry-overs in the fourth and fifth ends to take $13,000 in the sixth end. Both Stoughton and Martin made incredible shots to force a seventh end carry-over, with the eighth end also going undecided - leading to a sudden death finish. Following a dramatic draw to the button, Stoughtons 11.5 cm shot secured the remaining $22,000 in prize money plus a $15,000 winners bonus - bringing his final tally at the two-day event to $70,500. Stoughton earned his place in Sundays Travelers All-Star Curling Skins Game Presented by Pintys final following his victory over Brad Gushues All-Star squad in Saturday afternoons first semifinal, while Martin advanced following a victory over Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games medal hopeful Brad Jacobs rink in last nights second semifinal. Overall results from the Travelers All-Star Curling Skins Game Presented by Pintys are as follows: - Team Stoughton: $70,500 ($55,500 in skins prize money + $15,000 winners bonus)- Team Martin: $15,500- Team Jacobs: $9,500- Team Gushue: $4,500 ($3,500 in skins prize money + $1,000 draw to the button bonus) Following this weekends event, Martin remains the TSN skins game all-time leader in prize money, having won a record $440,850. Hunter Henry Jersey . -- The Jacksonville Jaguars are bringing back quarterback Chad Henne -- and making him the starter. Mike Williams Jersey . He wants to seize that opportunity. The trouble is, Firus has had more bumps on the road to Sochi than most. Last year, Firus had the skate of a lifetime in the short program at the Canadian championships when he landed his first triple Axel in competition and finished third in a stacked field. http://www.chargersauthenticshop.com/Ch ... ft-Jersey/. -- The Chicago Bears have agreed to terms with safety Brock Vereen and QB David Fales on four-year contracts. Doug Flutie Jersey . Prado stuck his glove down with Colorados Charlie Blackmon sliding into the bag, and quickly jumped back in pain after applying the tag. Prado held his left wrist as trainers came out of the Diamondbacks dugout to check him. Junior Seau Jersey . Tokarski, a somewhat controversial choice -- with his 10 games of NHL experience and all -- to replace an injured Carey Price in Game Two had a night to remember, turning back a Rangers team that was dominating play from the get-go, outshooting the Canadiens 14-4 in the first period and 37-25 overall.The National Hockey League’s scheduling process strikes me as a laborious task. The people responsible for creating the thirty team schedules have to take into account things like venue availability, travel burden, associated costs of travel, and competitive balance, all while trying to squeeze 1,230 games into a seven-month window. One of the things I’ve always found most interesting is how the league attempts to mitigate the number of back-to-back situations (not so eloquently referred to as “schedule losses” in NHL and NBA circles), a considerable slice of the league’s larger fight with competitive balance. To the league’s credit, Dirk Hoag’s work suggests that the league does try to schedule a comparable number of back-to-back situations for every franchise. Now, the eyeball test has long been damning of team performance on the second-half of back-to-backs, and I think that’s largely why the league has really made a concerted effort to balance the number of schedule losses around the league. The data substantiates what the eyeball test has told us for so long – teams on no rest struggle considerably relative to league norms, considerably so when those back-to-backs come on the road. Seven years of available data substantiates what the eyeball test has told us for so long – teams on no rest struggle considerably relative to league norms. Below, I have compiled Score-Adjusted Fenwick%, 5-on-5 Goal%, and Regulation/OT Win% for teams in back-to-back situations. They are slotted next to your league-average rates, to illustrate the drop-off between the two. (Score-Adjusted Fenwick% is a measure of 5-on-5 unblocked shot attempts, weighted for score, comparing results to league averages based on game score.) The Value of Rest Score-Adjusted Fenwick% Goal% Regulation/OT Win% Back-to-Back Home 51.0% 51.0% 53.0% All Home 52.0% 52.0% 56.0% Back-to-Back Road 47.0% 46.0% 41.0% All Road 48.0% 49.0% 44.0% So, teams without rest against teams with rest of ranging length are going to underperform – we see a three percentage drop-off in regulation/overtime win percentage for both home and road teams, which really is the smoking gun. It’s also hard to miss that possession and goal metrics slide in both states, too. Home teams drop a full percentage point on both fronts. Road teams drop a percentage point in possession rates, and three percentage points in goal rates. But, back-to-back situations – or “schedule losses” -- aren’t the only instance where a team is disadvantaged. The theory isn’t just that teams devoid of rest are at a disadvantage.dddddddddddd It’s that teams disproportionately rested to the opposition are at a disadvantage, in which back-to-back situations are only a small part of a large sample. Let’s change gears and turn to rest differentials. We can pull data for how teams perform with three days favorable rest, two days favorable rest, one day favorable rest, and so forth. If our theory holds true, performance – be it by possession rates, goal rates, or win rates – should deteriorate as rest becomes less advantageous, and travel becomes more frequent. Over the same seven years of data, here’s how home teams performed over various rest differentials. Home Team Rest Advantage 2007-2014 Rest Advantage Score-Adjusted Fenwick% Goal% Regulation/OT Win% 3 or more day deficit 50.9% 48.3% 52.3% 2-day deficit 51.1% 50.6% 54.9% 1-day deficit 51.6% 51.9% 54.2% Even 51.3% 52.0% 55.3% One-day advantage 52.1% 53.4% 58.9% Two-day advantage 52.6% 54.0% 58.3% 3 or more day advantage 51.9% 51.7% 51.6% I think this graph is about as telling as it gets. As you increase a home team’s rest advantage, their possession rates, goal rates, and win rates all spike. The inverse, of course, is true for road teams – as they see rest become more unfavourable, possession rates decline, goal rates decline, and win rates decline. Again, this gets very much back to what our eyes tell us – that teams who have rest advantages generally play a better hockey game, and teams that are fatigued generally play a worse hockey game. More importantly, it signifies that not all games are created equal. A home team with a two-game rest disadvantage is only expected to control 51.09% of the play, 50.58% of the 5-on-5 goals, and win 54.87% of the games. A home team with a two-game rest advantage should be held to significantly higher standards: on average, they should control 52.64% of play, score 54.04% of the goals, and win 58.25% of the hockey games. It seems certain to me that the league would be privy to this sort of data and reluctant to put teams into positions where they are regularly at a rest disadvantage, but it’s still an important topic that should be considered when forecasting future outcomes. Rightfully, analysts spend a lot of time talking up the importance of home-ice advantage – the data bears this advantage out. However, this data suggests that rest is another critical, albeit less appreciated, factor for teams and associated performance. 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